Should We really Fear for humanity ...

One of the world's richest people and the head of the nation's largest bank, join a group of business executives making bold prognostications about the potential of artificial intelligence, according to the Wall Street Journal last week.

Elon Musk and Jamie Dimon both say artificial intelligence could usher in dramatic change. It will be smarter than humans, transform society and surpass the collective intelligence of mankind in five years.

"My guess is that we will have AI that is smarter than any human probably around the end of next year," Musk said in a recent interview. "AI is the fastest-advancing technology I have ever seen."

Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, told investors Monday that AI could be as transformative as some of the major technological inventions over the past several hundred years.

"Think the printing press, the steam engine, electricity, computing and the Internet, among others," Dimon wrote in his annual letter to shareholders. "The AI race to build the next big thing has sparked a talent war in Silicon Valley. Tech companies have poured cash into AI at a breakneck pace."

Google Chief Executive Sundar Pichai has said AI could be more profound than the invention of fire or electricity.

Vinod Khosla, founder of venture-capital firm Khosla Ventures, declared last year that within 10 years, AI will take on "80% of the jobs that exist today."

"The need to work in society will disappear within 25 years for those countries that adapt these technologies," Khosla said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

The technology has also led to stark warnings about the future of humanity. Earlier this week, Japan's largest telecommunications company and the country's biggest newspaper cautioned in a manifesto unless AI is restrained, democracy and social order could collapse.

In the U.S., the Biden administration last year invoked emergency federal powers to compel major AI companies to notify the government when developing systems that pose a serious risk to national security.

Some say predictions of AI's transformative powers have been overblown.
Gary Marcus, a cognitive scientist who sold an AI startup to Uber in 2016, said generative AI may one day approach a level where it can transform society, but there has to be vast improvements to approach the level of change produced by the internet or even smartphones.

"Generative AI programs currently make too many mistakes, are unreliable and have a superficial understanding of the world," Marcus said.

"It is implausible that AI will approach human intelligence by the end of next year. Surpassing all of human intelligence in the next five years is also far-fetched", he said.

Marcus offered to wager $1 million with Musk that his prediction of AI becoming smarter than a human by next year turns out to be wrong.

Damion Hankejh, chief executive of Ingk, a startup semiconductor company, says he is bullish on the future of AI, saying it will be the next tech renaissance. But he doesn't think current AI systems will advance enough to surpass human intelligence. It's never going to happen," Hankejh said."Digital math machines aren't brains."

"There's a lot of hype in AI right now," says Angel Vossough, the co-founder and chief executive of BetterAI. "AI systems are good at analyzing large data sets, and can make predictions or speed up productivity. But they are nowhere near being as intelligent as humans", she said, "a big part of human intelligence is emotional intelligence."

"AI needs to connect, understand and respond to human emotions in a way that actually feels authentic and meaningful" she said. "I don't think we are anywhere close." 

How To Organise for AI ... Just Say CAIO ...
Chief AI officer CAIO is one of the hottest new job titles but some  say AI strategy should be everyone's job. Many organizations have decided that AI is too important and complicated to rely on one executive to develop and manage their strategy.

Organizations raced to develop AI ideas and leadership in 2023. President Biden ordered every federal agency to hire a chief AI officer (CAIO) by the start of 2024.

Imagine that a CAIO in every government department in the UK. It could even lead to an end to fax machines in the NHS ...

That's all for now. Let me know what you think. Have a great week ahead ...

References
Elon Musk and Jamie Dimon's AI Predictions and What They Mean for the Future of Humanity - Wall Street Journal. Joseph De Avila. 10th April 2024.